数字时代的双城记 A tale of two coasts digitally divide

To visit Silicon Valley these days is to take a rocket ride into the future. The breathless talk is of another surge in technological innovation, the rapid development of virtual reality, driverless cars, 3D printing, robots, personalised medicines, the application of artificial intelligence to masses of data and of further disruption in almost every nook of the economy. 如今拜访硅谷，就有如跪上火箭较慢穿过到未来。人们慷慨激昂地谈论着新一轮技术革新浪潮，虚拟现实、无人驾驶汽车、3D打印机、机器人、个人化医疗的较慢发展，人工智能在大数据上的应用于，还有经济中完全每一个角度所遭的深刻印象政治宣传。It is an exhilarating, disorienting and at times downright scary experience. 这是一种令人兴奋、忧郁，有时又十分可怕的体验。

Turning on the television while visiting Silicon Valley, in a bid to catch up with the presidential election campaign, is to crash back to Earth with a thud. The talk is of income inequality, the collapse of the middle class, the banning of Muslim visitors and the building of walls to stop immigrants pouring into the US. 而假如你在硅谷时关上电视，想要想到美国总统大选展开得怎么样了，你就不会砰地一声跌到返地球。电视上谈论的都是收益不公平、朋克的中产阶级、禁令穆斯林入境以及修建隔离墙以制止移民涌进美国。The optimism of forward-looking West Coast entrepreneurs clashes with the pessimism of the backward-looking East Coast politicians. That coastal divide is particularly stark in the US but it exists metaphorically in many other countries, too. At its simplest, it is a tussle within ourselves, both as consumers and as citizens. 目光将来的西海岸企业家的悲观与激进的东海岸政客的乐观构成鲜明对比。

两个海岸之间的这种分歧在美国特别是在显著，但从隐喻意义上说道，它也在其他许多国家不存在。非常简单来说，这是我们自身内部作为消费者与作为公民这两层身份之间的斗争。The techno-optimists of California promise a further bonanza for our inner consumer, largely powered by the supercomputer smartphones in our pockets. They aim to dissolve remaining inefficiencies in just about every consumer transaction, in the same way as Uber has revolutionised the taxi trade and Airbnb has challenged the hotel industry, throwing up new economic opportunities in the process. “You can become a driver in an hour. You can become a hotel owner in a day,” marvels one venture capitalist. 加州的技术悲观为首指出，我们身上作为消费者的这一部分将步入更进一步兴旺，相当大程度上借助我们口袋里具备超级计算机功能的智能手机。

他们期望避免完全所有消费者交易中剩下的陈旧问题，与优步(Uber)革命性的出租车服务交易和Airbnb挑战酒店业的方式如出一辙，并在该过程中带给新的经济机遇。一位风险资本家赞叹道：“你可以在一个小时内沦为一名司机。你可以在一天内沦为一个酒店业主。

” By flying balloons, unmanned aircraft and satellites over the remoter parts of the world, Google and Facebook are also planning to connect everyone on the planet to the internet, creating the possibility of a global digital marketplace for products, services and ideas. “The fact that we may soon provide all human knowledge to the entire population of the world is a pretty big step forward,” says one tech executive. More excitable commentators predict the era of the mass production of ideas, of a “second renaissance”, of the flowering of a global civilisation. 通过在世界偏僻之地升空气球、无人飞行器和卫星，谷歌(Google)和Facebook也在计划让地球上所有人都能终端互联网，从而有可能为产品、服务和点子建构一个全球性的数字市场。一位科技业高管回应：“我们有可能迅速向世界所有人获取人类的全部科学知识，这是相当大的变革。

”更加激动的评论员们则预测一个思想纷呈的时代，一个“第二次文艺复兴”、全球文明昌盛的时代即将来临。But when the Silicon Valley crowd pause for breath, even they worry about some of the consequences of this technological turmoil: the impact on so many traditional jobs, the erosion of employment rights and the unequal distribution of the fruits of technology. 但是当硅谷人停下赫尔口气的时候，就连他们也担忧这种技术革命带给的一些后果：对众多传统工作职位的影响、对低收入权利的风化以及技术发展成果的不公平分配。One long-time tech observer says Silicon Valley’s creative destruction will lead to a cruel world for many “throw-away citizens” in the US and Europe who cannot adapt. “Donald Trump has his finger on the lurking, deep-seated fear of the throwaway citizen,” he says. 一个长年注目科技行业的仔细观察人士回应，硅谷的创造性毁坏将让美欧许多无法适应环境的“重复使用公民”(throw-away citizen)面临一个残忍世界。

他说道：“唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)明白‘重复使用公民’潜在的深层次忧虑。” Silicon Valley may have an image as a haven of libertarianism but some are surprisingly keen on the idea of greater social insurance — such as a “citizen’s” or “basic” income — to be funded by a digital dividend from tech profits. 硅谷有可能具有自由主义天堂的形象，但令人车祸的是，一些人十分赞同利用来自科技业利润的“数字红利”来强化社会保障（比如“公民的”或“基本的”收益）。Darian Shirazi is one young tech entrepreneur who supports the idea. “We have a small technological aristocracy and a middle class struggling to catch up with the demands of a more efficient economy. Basic income can bring a baseline and offer freedom to those trapped by our new economy.” 约里安设拉子(Darian Shirazi)是一位反对上述观点的年长科技创业家。

“我们有一小群科技富二代和一个很难符合更加高效经济的拒绝的中产阶级群体。基本收益需要获取基本生活确保，和平那些被新的经济所困的人。

” Angry voters in rich societies clearly feel that politicians duped them about the gains of globalisation over the past 30 years. Although benefiting massively as consumers, many voters have lost out as workers, as jobs have shifted abroad and incomes have stagnated. The tech revolution only compounds the upheaval, threatening the second great disruption of our lifetimes. 富足社会的气愤选民们似乎实在，关于全球化的成果，30年来政客们仍然在愚弄他们。尽管作为消费者受益匪浅，但许多选民作为劳动者却遭到了损失，因为很多就业机会移往到国外，而且收益也衰退了。技术革命只是激化了这种动荡不安，有可能导致我们一生中的第二次大毁坏。

James Manyika, co-head of the McKinsey Global Institute, suggests the picture is far more nuanced. He says each individual has at least five facets: as consumer, worker, citizen, investor and a moral being. “All these have largely worked in convergence before but these technological shifts are creating very different answers today,” he says. 麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)牵头主管詹姆斯马尼卡(James Manyika)回应，实际情况要错综复杂得多。他说道，每个人都最少有消费者、劳动者、公民、投资者和道德主体这5层身份。

他回应：“所有这些身份过去基本上是保持一致的，但如今这些技术变化带给了截然不同的答案。” It would be a tragedy if the promise of technology was sideswiped by a neo-Luddite backlash. We need governments to understand these dizzying changes and devise smart regulation that encourages innovation rather than suppresses it. We also need the tech companies to acknowledge the disruption they cause and do far more to benefit all aspects of our lives. 如果技术有可能带给的前景因为“新的卢德为首分子”的声浪而被波及，那将是一场悲剧。

我们必须各国政府解读这些令人目眩的变化，并设计聪慧的监管法规，希望而非抨击创意。我们还必须科技公司否认它们导致的毁坏，代价更大希望让我们生活的方方面面获益。

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